Objective
The cooling climatic effect of anthropogenic air pollution particles, or aerosols, compensates to an unknown extent for the anthropogenic global warming caused by greenhouse gases. We aim to clarify the strength of the cooling climatic effect of anthropogenic aerosols by studying their impact on clouds using natural experiments – the largest unknown in the climatic impact of human activity.
Activities and Expected Outcomes
COVID-19 lockdowns, improved air quality on weekends, long-term air pollution trends, and the strongest local pollution sources are natural experiments that can be studied, through which we compare polluted and unpolluted atmospheric conditions in a situation similar to a laboratory experiment. Natural experiments help to eliminate noise from weather variability and establish causal links between aerosols, clouds, and climate change.
The project’s results will increase the accuracy of climate forecasts, enabling the prediction of negative impacts of climate change and informing climate policy makers about the urgency of mitigating anthropogenic climate change.
Duration: 01.01.2023–31.12.2027
Principal Investigator: Velle Toll
Funding: 810,000 EUR
Funder: Estonian Research Council